In order for a culture to maintain itself, it has to have a birth rate of 2.1%. Anything less then that means the culture is in decline.
Or perhaps, I should re-phrase that – instead of "culture", which is constantly changing and shifting, let us state that in order for a people group to survive every couple must have two or more children. If they don't, then when they die, their group shrinks – unless someone else picks up the slack.
This fact is all the more interesting when you realize that most of Europe and North America has a birth rate under 2.1%. Take the good old USA – according to the CIA World Factbook, the USA has a birth rate of 1.3% (2009 est).
France is at 1.3%; UK – 1.1%; Canada – 1.0%; Germany – 0.8%; Switzerland – 0.9%; Greece – 0.9%
Just for comparison sake, here are a couple of other countries: Georgia – 1.0%; China – 1.4%; Paraguay – 2.8%; Niger – 5.2%; Cambodia – 2.5%; Hong Kong – 0.7%
In fact, if you look at the birth rates for all the countries in the world, you will notice that 57% or 129 of the 224 countries are below the 2.1% benchmark. Of the top 50 countries with the highest birth rates, the majority are located on the continent of Africa.
What does all this mean?
It means that the world demographics as we know it will drastically change over the next 20 years.[@more@]
The Caucasian majority in the Northern Hemisphere will become the minority ethnic group by the time that I'm 60 – meaning in about 40 years.
What do we do?
I say all this not to scare folks or to slam other ethnic groups – I say it because as a follower of the Lord Most High, I need to be ready for the change. We, the Church, need to be ready – no, we need to be leading the way forward by embracing our bothers and sisters from other ethnic groups.
In some ways the Church at large has done that – especially those groups involved in overseas mission work. However, I don't think the "church back home" in the USA is ready or willing to make this shift.
For the most part, churches in the USA are filled with mostly Caucasian believer. This needs to change!!
Will it be hard? Yes. Is it Biblical? YES!! Is the hand of God in it? I believe so.
As I go, think about this – at the same time that birth rate of the USA has deceased, the population of the USA has increases due to immigration. While immigration is a non-matter to me, the fact remains that these folks are bring with them their religious beliefs.
Christendom has died and church has better get ready to fight (spiritually – not physically). The time of sitting on the pew and eating the fat of the land has past.
May the will of the King of Kings be done on earth as in heaven.
Interesting – this pattern has happen before through out history. The different people groups have had their turns at being the minor group and then the major. What is sad is when the groups that are minor now, believe the lies that they were always minor, instead of that they come with a rich heritage. We can all learn from that.
I agree – history is full of shifts in people groups and nations.
I think this shift is going to be extra special as it look like the shift is going to be less violent then previous ones…of course, I may be wrong. We will have to wait and see – which, seeing that we get to actually watch, makes this a cool shift. =P
You mentioned the birth rate in Africa – but … you need to factor in the death rate before making any predictions. There is a reason why our forefathers had so many kids, in hopes that a couple of them would survive into adulthood to procreate. Its not good that our birthrates are below 2.1%, but we also have very few who die in infancy and childhood as well.
The interesting thing is that the world’s highest death rate is only 2.2% or about 22 people per 1000. A quick glance through the list shows that the birth rate in Africa is higher then the death rate.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2066rank.html?countryName=Angola&countryCode=AO®ionCode=af#AO
As far as the USA and Europe population is concern, it is true that folks are living longer. However, that causes its own problem as there are less and less young people to support and/or take care of them as they grow older. This means that when the older generation dies, there will not be anyone to replace them. That is what is happening to Europe and the USA.
To your first reply – that’s interesting that the death rate is so low, even for those countries. Of course in the last 30 years we’ve (America) been doing a lot for Africa trying to help its people.
To your second – Yes, I got that. Especially with the Baby Boomer generation getting older and then so much of our generation was never born….